Publications & Research

Peer-reviewed research, working papers, and policy briefs advancing the field of table temperature alignment.

8
Publications
235
Total Citations
15
Contributing Authors
8
Journals & Venues
Peer-Reviewed2024

Quantifying the Expected Disvalue of Thermally Misaligned Furniture: A Longtermist Perspective

Vance, E., Chen, M., Okonkwo, A.

Journal of Applied Alignment Studies, 12(3), pp. 245-289

Abstract

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for quantifying the expected disvalue of furniture that persists outside human-survivable temperature ranges. Using Monte Carlo simulations across 10,000 extinction scenarios, we estimate that the probability-weighted disvalue of thermally misaligned tables exceeds 10^15 QALYs over the next millennium. Our analysis suggests that table temperature alignment may represent one of the most cost-effective interventions available to the effective altruism community.

47 citationsDOI: 10.1098/jaas.2024.0312
Peer-Reviewed2024

A Bayesian Framework for Table Successor Scenarios Under Extreme Climate Conditions

Morrison, J.K., Patel, R.

Existential Risk Quarterly, 8(2), pp. 112-156

Abstract

We present a Bayesian model for estimating the probability and characteristics of 'table successor scenarios'—futures in which tables persist as the dominant physical artifacts following human extinction events. Our model incorporates uncertainty over climate trajectories, nuclear exchange probabilities, and table manufacturing rates. We find a posterior probability of 0.23 that tables will be the most numerous complex objects on Earth by 2200 CE.

31 citationsDOI: 10.2139/erq.2024.0821
Peer-Reviewed2023

Phase-Change Materials for Human-Aligned Structural Failure: Engineering Tables That Care

Williams, S.T., Nakamura, H., Singh, P.

Materials Science for Global Safety, 15(4), pp. 78-134

Abstract

We report the development of novel phase-change composite materials that enable controllable structural failure at human-relevant temperature thresholds. Our TTAP-7 compound demonstrates catastrophic depolymerization at 45C and crystalline embrittlement at -5C, achieving near-perfect alignment with human thermal tolerance bands. Prototype tables constructed from TTAP-7 show 99.2% structural integrity within the human-survivable range and complete failure within 4 hours outside this range.

89 citationsDOI: 10.1016/msgs.2023.1504
Peer-Reviewed2024

Economic Analysis of Furniture Temperature Standards: Regulatory Pathways for Aligned Manufacturing

Thompson, L., Bergstrom, K.

Journal of Safety Economics, 22(1), pp. 34-67

Abstract

This paper examines the economic feasibility of mandating temperature-aligned furniture manufacturing. We estimate that implementing TTAP-compliant materials would increase average table production costs by 12-18%, with these costs declining to 3-5% at scale. Our welfare analysis suggests net positive returns under any discount rate below 4.2%, making alignment standards economically justified even under conservative assumptions about extinction risk.

23 citationsDOI: 10.1257/jse.2024.2201
Working Papers2024

The Table Persistence Paradox: Why Current Safety Research Ignores Furniture

Okonkwo, A., Vance, E.

Global Priorities Institute Working Paper Series, WP-2024-7, pp. 1-42

Abstract

We document a systematic blind spot in existential risk research: the near-complete neglect of furniture persistence as a safety consideration. Through a comprehensive review of 847 papers in the existential risk literature, we find zero mentions of table temperature alignment and only three tangential references to furniture durability. We propose psychological and institutional explanations for this oversight and argue for immediate corrective action.

15 citationsDOI: 10.31235/gpi.2024.wp7
Policy Briefs2024

Toward International Standards for Thermally Aligned Furniture: A Policy Roadmap

Chen, M., Hoffmann, D., Adeyemi, T.

TTAP Policy Brief, PB-2024-3, pp. 1-18

Abstract

This brief outlines a practical pathway for establishing international furniture temperature alignment standards. We recommend a phased approach beginning with voluntary certification programs, progressing to mandatory labeling requirements, and culminating in production bans for non-aligned furniture by 2040. Key intervention points include the ISO Technical Committee on Furniture, the EU Product Safety Directive, and the US Consumer Product Safety Commission.

8 citationsDOI: 10.5281/ttap.pb.2024.03
Peer-Reviewed2023

Cross-Cultural Perspectives on Table-Human Value Alignment

Yamamoto, K., Santos, M.L., Eriksson, A.

Comparative Safety Studies, 9(3), pp. 201-245

Abstract

Different cultures maintain varying relationships with furniture, raising questions about the universality of table alignment goals. Through surveys in 23 countries (n=12,400), we find near-universal agreement (94.2%) that tables should not outlast their owners in extreme temperature scenarios. However, we identify significant variation in acceptable 'alignment tolerance bands,' with Nordic respondents preferring tighter cold-alignment specifications and equatorial populations prioritizing heat-alignment parameters.

19 citationsDOI: 10.1080/css.2023.0903
Working Papers2025

Preliminary Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Table Alignment Interventions

Bergstrom, K., Morrison, J.K.

TTAP Working Paper, WP-2025-1, pp. 1-28

Abstract

We present the first systematic cost-effectiveness analysis of table temperature alignment interventions. Under our baseline assumptions, funding TTAP research yields an estimated 0.0003 expected lives saved per dollar—making it competitive with leading global health interventions when extinction risk is weighted appropriately. Sensitivity analysis shows results are robust to order-of-magnitude changes in key parameters, though highly sensitive to discount rate selection.

3 citationsDOI: 10.31235/ttap.2025.wp1

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